تحليلي بر توزيع فضايي جرايم شهري توسط پايگاه داده مكاني (مطالعه موردي: اسلام آباد شهر زنجان)

Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Urban Crime by Spatial Database (Case Study: Islamabad Zanjan)

اين پژوهش با هدف تحليل سازمان فضايي جرايم شرارت و درگيري در منطقه اسلام‏آباد شهر زنجان و شناسايي الگوهاي مكاني و عوامل تسهيل‏كننده ارتكاب اين جرايم و به منظور مقابله و كنترل محدوده‌هاي آلوده به اين جرايم، با استفاده از مدل‌هاي آماري و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافيايي GIS انجام يافته است. روش پژوهش تحليلي و تطبيقي است و براي شناسايي الگوهاي فضايي توزيع جرايم در سطح شهر از آزمون مركز متوسط، بيضي انحراف معيار، آزمون خوشه‌بندي، شاخص‌هاي نزديك‌ترين همسايه و آزمون تراكم كرنل استفاده شده است. جامعه آماري پژوهش تمامي جرايم شرارت و درگيري است كه در دوره زماني يكساله در محدوده اسلام‏آباد شهر زنجان به وقوع پيوسته است. يافته‏ها نشان مي‏دهد جرايم شرارت و درگيري با تعداد 62 مورد معادل 19.31 درصد كل جرايم ارتكابي منطقه اسلام‏آباد طي دوره مورد مطالعه رتبه نخست را به خود اختصاص داده است و توزيع اين بزه در سطح منطقه اسلام‏آباد از الگوي خوشه‏اي و متمركز پيروي مي‏كند. همچنين بين تراكم جمعيت در اين محدوده و نرخ وقوع بزهكاري در آن رابطه مستقيم وجود دارد.

Introduction Zanjan in recent decades has enjoyed considerable population and physical growth. The rapid irregular growth in population number caused unfavorable formation of informal settlement areas in the city. Islamabad is of the largest informal accommodation regions in Zanjan which built as a consequence of massive rural migration during 1970s. Although the area, for the time being, is considered on official areas within the city, it is suffering different skeletal, service systems, demographic, social and cultural matters. This paper aimed at identifying and analyzing the spatial patterns of the conflicts criminal mischief in Islamabad Zanjan and crime facilitators in this city in order to control the high-crime districts using statistical models and Geographical Information Systems. Material & Method This study is based on analytic-comparative method and the spatial distributions of the conflicts criminal mischief in Islamabad Zanjan have been identified by using some statistical methods including: Mean center, Standard Deviation Distance, Standard Deviation Ellipse, Tests for Clustering, Nearest Neighborhood Index (NNI) and Quartic Kernel Density Estimation. The population of all crimes and conflicts mischief during the year that have occurred within the Zanjan Islamabad. Discussion of Results & Conclusions According to the findings of current study one of the focal areas of crime dotted on an informal settlement regions of Islamabad and matches the spatial distribution of crime in the above mention area; i.e. commitment of crimes are concentrated in certain parts of the region, which most of the other parts are considered clear. Islamabad region, one of the most crime-spotted districts of Zanjan is among the largest informal settlement areas, based on a consequence of massive rural migration in 1970s. Later censures in 2006 say that 39439 people i.e. more than 11.2 percent of Zanjanʹs populations are living in Islamabad. While it has just 1.8% of the total living space in Zanjan, so encounters high density. So Islamabad informal settlement region is one of the highly populated districts of Zanjan, it equals 422 people per hectares, while the relative population density of Zanjan is 69 person per hectare. In other words, Islamabad is relatively 6 times more dense than Zanjan and is has higher rate of crime occurrence respectively. Therefore, we can conclude that there exist a direct correlation between the population density and social disorder rate increase. Highest percentage of the areas is devoted to residential district, so that 45.70% of the area is residential. However this proportion is 17.6% for Zanjan. Therefore, the residential area in Islamabad district is 35.81% higher, 11% of which devoted to mixed residence. This population is 2.4% in Zanjan, so it can be summed up that residential and mixed residential districts in Islamabad are 3 time higher than Zanjan itself and shows an imbalance in residential allocation planning. On the other hand, The residents needs and requirements and other residential- related portables are hardly qualified. And most of the utilities and services are insufficient, if any. Extremely high contribution to residential area without sufficient services and utilities had an undeniable impact on crime increase on the district. Hence, type and style of urban utilization has a direct affection on committing or preventing crimes and misdemeanors. The findings show that the mischief and conflicts of 62 criminal equivalent to 19.31% of the total crimes committed during the period studied area of Islamabad is ranked account and the distribution of crime in the area of pattern clustering and centralized Islamabad follows. As well as between population density and the rate occurrence of crime in the area where there is a direct relationship.