بررسي رو شهايِ مد لسازي، و اولويت بندي فنون يكپارچه حمل ونقل و كاربري زمين

ريش ???? ه برخي از مش ???? كلات موج ???? ود در حمل ونقل ش ???? هري در عدم توجه ب ???? ه كاربري زمين و حمل ونقل در س ???? اختاري يكپارچه؛ و منفك پنداشتنِ اين دو زير سيستم در برنام هريزي ها و به تَبَع آن مدل ساز يها قرار دارد. به همين دليل در كشورهاي توسعه يافته تلاش هاي گوناگوني در زمينه مدل سازيِ حمل و نقل با توجه به سيستم ها، متغيرهاي گوناگونِ شهري، روش ها، و نظريات مختلف صورت گرفته است. در اين ميان با توجه به تعدد مدل هاي توسعه يافته و تفاوت بنيان هاي نظري و رو شهاي به كار گرفته شده در آنها، مرور و بررسي مدل هاي موجود در اين زمينه و اولوي تبندي آنها ضروري به نظر مي رس ???? د. به همين منظور در اين مقاله، س ???? اختار كلي، گون هبنديِ كلان و فنون مد لس ???? ازيِ موجود در اين زمينه مورد بررس ???? ي قرار گرفته اس ????ت. پ ????س از آن معرفي كوتاهي از مد لهاي يكپارچه موجود به عمل آمده و در نهايت با تعريف 6 معيار اصلي و 21 معيار فرعي، و با استفاده از تكنيك دلفي و فرآيند تحليل سلسله مراتبي فازي، اولوي تبندي مدل ها صورت گرفته اس ????ت. نتايج اين مطالعه نش ???? ان داد كه مد لهاي TRANUS 3 و شبيه سازي 4 شهري به ترتيب با امتيازهاي 103624 / 0 و 102097 / 0، اولوي تهاي اول و دوم را به خود اختصاص مي دهند.

Modeling urban transportation is the most important part of transportation planning process. As land use and transportation are two main subsystems of complex urban system that affect each other, modeling urban transportation in relation to land use and awareness of integrated modeling methods for precise planning and prediction, management and control of urban traffic is inevitable. Moreover, some of the urban problems are rooted in the lack of attention to the land use and transportation in an integrated structure. For these reasons, in the recent years various attempts have been made in the field of transportation modeling according to the different urban variables, systems, methods and theories. Because of numerous developed models in this field and differentiations in their theoretical foundations, reviewing and prioritizing of these models seems necessary. Therefore, at first, general structure is introduced and general concepts of modeling techniques are classified. At second, a brief introduction of these models is presented. Finally, defining 21 criteria for prioritization of these models are selected and the models are prioritized through fuzzy analytic hierarchical process. The results show that TRANUS and URBANSIM models are located in the first and second priors. The calculated scores for these models are equal to 0.103624 and 0.102097 respectively. Although these models are placed in the first and second priors, implementation of these models addressed with some obstacles in developing countries because of limitations in their required and high cost and time for calibration of these models. Thus, development of new models based on progressive econometric methods and soft calculations such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks based on the requirements of planners and available data is proposed.