الگوي مديريت ريسك در پروژه هاي BOT، توسعه‌ي چهارچوب مفهومي محدوده- منافع

INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR BOT PROJECTS: DEVELOPING THE SCOPE-INTEREST CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

نگراني از عدم مديريت صحيح ريسك‌ها، مهم‌ترين مانع توسعه‌ي پروژه‌هاي BOT است. در اين نوشتار، با بررسي مفصل مطالعات قبلي و تجربيات پروژه‌هاي اجراشده در آسياي جنوب شرقي، الگويي براي مديريت ريسك‌هاي BOT ارايه شده است؛ تا ريسك‌هاي تمامي مراحل يك پروژه‌ي BOT را پوشش دهد و منافع تمام ذي‌نفعان را متعادل كند. الگوي پيشنهادي با توسعه‌ي ساختاري مفهومي مبتني بر موازنه‌ي محدوده- منافع، ابزاري روش‌مند براي شناسايي ريسك‌ها از ديدگاه عوامل متفاوت، تخصيص متعادل ريسك‌ها، انتخاب و حتي توسعه‌ي ابزارهاي واكنش به ريسك را در اختيار تصميم‌گيران قرار مي‌دهد؛ تا با كمك آن روند آماده‌سازي پروژه را كوتاه‌تر و كم هزينه‌تر كنند. پياده‌سازي اين مدل در يك پروژه‌ي خاص، آن چنان‌‌كه در اين نوشتار براي پروژه‌هاي نيروگاهي ايران انجام شده است، ساختاري مطمين براي افزايش اعتماد سرمايه گذاران و بخش عمومي به روش BOT فراهم مي‌آورد.

In recent decades, many developing countries have invited private investors to develop infrastructure projects. BOT is a most popular way for private-public partnership that encourages private finance while the owner maintains strategic control. However, improper allocation of risks builds serious barriers against development of BOT projects. Due to multiparty involvement, large investment, long term concession and the influences of national factors; risk management within a BOT project is very complicated. It is, thus, the subject of many studies. However, an integrated model for risk management is rarely reported in the literature review. In an integrated model, each phase of risk management (i.e. identification, allocation and response of risks) is developed based on a prior phase and a defined guideline derived for different decision makers through project accomplishment. Furthermore, most of these studies do not cover all scopes of the project and consider the conflicting interests of project participants. Therefore, their results do not establish a comprehensive and balanced framework. In this paper, an integrated model is introduced that covers the entire scope of a BOT life cycle and balances the interests of project participants with decisions of how risks are identified and allocated or responded to. The proposed model develops a conceptual framework that links the cost of risk management to how it covers the scope of the project and the interests of parties. This model ensures the decision maker that the risks are controlled safely and with minimum cost. Applying the proposed model to a specific project, as we did for Iranian power plants projects, simplifies attracting private investment and public interest for constructing infrastructure projects through BOT projects. Utilizing expert knowledge through the Delphi method, the proposed model (applied to cases of power plant BOT projects of Iran and a guideline for risk management; from identification to allocation and handling of risks) is established. Utilizing the proposed model, the owner can compromise on risk allocation at lower cost and time and encourage the participants to bear the higher level of risks, while these are the main problems again the development of BOT projects in Iran.