تحليل جغرافيايي پيامدهاي اجتماعي- اقتصادي جابجايي پايتخت در ايران

Geographical Analysis of the Socio-Economic Consequences of the Relocation of the Capital City in Iran

شهرهاي پايتختي نقش‌هاي بسيار مهمي در تمام كشورهاي جهان ايفا مي‌كنند. يكي از اين نقش‌ها، نقش سياسي- اداري است كه اغلب با تمركز فعاليت‌هاي اقتصادي، اجتماعي، آموزشي همراه است. تمركز گسترده انواع فعاليت‌ها در تهران به‌عنوان يكي از شهرهاي پايتختي در سال‌هاي اخير با پيامدهاي اجتماعي- اقتصادي مثبت و منفي گسترده روبه‌رو بوده است و منجر به پديد آمدن طرح جابجايي كاركردهاي پايتخت جهت كاهش اين مشكلات شده است. هدف از اين پژوهش تحليل جغرافيايي پيامدهاي اجتماعي- اقتصادي جابجايي كاردكردهاي پايتخت و مديريت يكپارچه است. روش پژوهش توصيفي-تحليلي، جامعه آماري كارشناسان مسايل اقتصادي و اجتماعي و حجم نمونه 40 نفر بر مبناي نمونه‌گيري خوشه‌اي است. ابزار جمع‌آوري داده‌ها اسنادي و همچنين مصاحبه و پرسشنامه است. جهت تجزيه و تحليل داده‌ها از مدل‌سازي معادلات ساختاري(LISREL) استفاده شده است. نتايج مدل‌سازي معادلات ساختاري انتقال پايتخت نشان مي‌دهد در صورت انتقال پايتخت، تمركز اقتصادي به‌دليل انباشت سرمايه در تهران، در مكان جديد تحقق پيدا نمي‌كند، همچنين روند رشد جمعيتي، بحران‌هاي زيست محيطي نيز تشديد خواهد شد. در مقابل، انتقال برخي از كاركردها تاثيرات مستقيم (73/0) و غيرمستقيم (40/0) زيادي بر روي ساماندهي شهر تهران دارد. به‌گونه‌اي كه انتقال اين كاركردها باعث كاهش تمركز جمعيتي، ترافيكي، سرمايه و ... در تهران مي‌شود.

Extended Abstract Introduction Capitals play an important role in all countries. One of these roles is political-administrative which often accompanied with the concentration of economic, social, educational activities. High Concentration of different types of activities in Tehran as the capital in recent years has had positive and negative socio-economic consequences and has led to the suggestion of relocation of the capital’s functions in order to reduce these problems. The purpose of this study is investigation of the geopolitical, socio-economic consequences of the relocation of the capital. Methodology The research method is analytic- descriptive. Statistical sample is the experts of social and economic fields and the sample size is 40 patients that are selected by cluster sampling. Data gathering procedure is based on library and field findings. Structural equation modeling (LISREL) is used to analyze data. Result and discussion Results of Structural equation modeling related to the capital relocation indicate that the economic concentration would take place in new location, but the capital cannot achieve political decentralization. Also, its population would be increased, environmental crisis would not be reduced and indicators of quality of life (with a coefficient of -0.83) would not be improved. The results of the structural model suggests that there is a direct and strong relationship between organizing Tehran and taking strategies to transfer some functions to the other cities and integrated urban management. Conclusions Based on the studied factors, it can be concluded that the capital relocation cannot be the best logical solution. Instead of a complete relocation of the capital, if some of its functions transfer to other cities, Tehran would not be attractive to migrate. In this regard, transferring some of industries and organizations to other provinces can help to reorganize Tehran and also can lead to the development of other cities and provinces.