داده‌كاوي و تحليل رفتار شهروندان در تفكيك زباله از مبدا با بهره‌گيري از الگوريتم C4.5 درخت تصميم (مطالعه موردي: شهر مشهد)

Data Mining and Analysis of the Citizens’ Behavior towards the Source Separation of Waste Project by Applying C4.5 Algorithm of Decision Tree (Case Study: Mashhad city)

اهداف: هدف اين پژوهش، ارايه الگوريتم‌ تصميم‌سازي شهروندان در زمينه همكاري با طرح تفكيك زباله از مبدا و شناسايي مهم‌ترين متغيرهاي موثر بر رفتار شهروندان در اين زمينه و ايجاد امكان اتخاذ سياست‌هاي هدفمند به منظور ارتقاي سطح مشاركت شهروندان با طرح تفكيك زباله از مبدا و افزايش سطح كارايي هزينه‌اي سياست‌هاي اتخاذ‌شده است. روش: اين پژوهش با بهره‌گيري از دانش نوين داده‌كاوي و الگوريتم C4.5تكنيك درخت تصميم و استفاده از داده‌ها و اطّلاعات 145 شهروند شهر مشهد كه در سال 1390 با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گيري تصادفي ساده جمع‌آوري شده است، الگوريتم‌هاي تصميم‌سازي شهروندان را در زمينه همكاري با طرح تفكيك زباله از مبدا ارايه مي كند. يافته‌ها/ نتايج: نتايج اين مطالعه نشان مي‌دهد كه متغير رضايت از طرح تفكيك زباله از مبدا، مهم‌ترين متغيري است كه مي‌تواند بر رفتار شهروندان در همكاري با اين طرح موثر باشد. متغيرهاي ديگري نيز در سطوح بعدي بر رفتار شهروندان موثرند كه از آن جمله مي‌توان به وضعيّت شغلي مادر خانواده، ارزيابي از نحوه ارزش‌گذاري طرح از زباله تفكيك‌شده، آگاهي از مزاياي زيست‌محيطي، اقتصادي و اجتماعي طرح تفكيك زباله از مبدا و سطح تحصيلات اشاره كرد. نتيجه‌گيري: نتايج اين مطالعه مي‌تواند به سياست‌گذاران اين عرصه در اتخاذ سياست‌هاي هدفمند به منظور بهبود وضعيّت توسعه شهري و در نهايت ارتقاي سطح رفاه شهروندان كه مهم‌ترين هدف تمامي نهادهاي متولي امور شهر است، كمك كند.

Extended Abstract 1. Introduction Nowadays, in the developing and some developed countries the source separation of the waste project is conducted intensively because of the shortage of keeping abnormal waste places and landfills along with the economic considerations. Hence, the recycling and conversion material organizations of municipalities have done some projects which resulted in increasing the participation of families in the separation of valuable waste. Investigation of the current state of dry waste source separation schemes in Mashhad shows that, currently, about six projects in the field of source separation of waste are executing in Mashhad. It is clear that the success or failure of these kinds of projects depends on the amount of citizens attendance and their participation in these projects; therefore, taking the importance of social, environmental, and economic aspects into consideration along with its special role in the urban development issues, it is necessary to detect the behavioral algorithms of citizens in terms of their assistance for the source waste separation project. As a result, it would be possible to determine the most important variables influencing the citizens’ behavior in this field and to enhance the possibility of adopting the targeted policies in order to improve the citizens’ assistance level for the source separation of the waste project as well as increasing the level of the cost efficiency of the adopted policies. 2. Theoretical Framework The rational choice theory says that social phenomena are the results of community members’ actions. Humans unlike other creatures act based on the knowledge and planning and their actions have reasons and wise evaluations. It is possible to interpret many social phenomena as in terms of the target actions of the social activists. Three groups of personal factors, situational factors, and the action space will influence the activists’ social behavior 3. Methodology This research presents decision-making algorithms of Mashhad citizens with regards to the source separation of the waste project by applying the new knowledge of data analysis and C4.5 algorithm of the decision tree. The data have been collected from 145 citizens through simple random sampling method in the year 2012. C4.5 algorithm is an augmented version of ID3 algorithm which is developed by Quinlan in order to form the decision tree. The main idea of this algorithm is that the small trees are better than the bigger trees. . In this study, in order to determine the socio-economic factors affecting the behavior of Mashhad citizens in the source separation of waste in the year 2011, the questionnaires were administered as a tool of data collection. In order to design a questionnaire, firstly, the literature of the source separation of the waste was reviewed by identifying some of the influential factors of citizens’ behavior in the source separation of the waste. Subsequently, the scale was constructed under the close supervision of the experts. 4. Results & Discussion Based on the research findings, it can be said that the fitted tree has a high classification accuracy as it could make a distinction between about 88 percent of the citizens who separate their waste from source and 87.5 percent of the citizens who do not participate in the source separation of waste projects. On the whole, it could classify 87 percent of the citizens properly. Besides, the results show that the factor of Satisfaction of the Project is the most important factor influencing the citizens’ assistance. The other variables in order of influence, are the motherʹs employment status, the value estimation of the project, the awareness of the environmental, economic, and social advantages of the project along with the education level. 5. Conclusion & Suggestions The findings can help the policymakers adopt the right policies in terms of the urban management scope which would result in the enhancement of the citizens’ welfare level as the most important goal of all urban organizations. Given that one of the most important variables influencing citizensʹ behavior is their satisfaction from the manner of implementation, it is essential that executors of this project pay special attention to the better implementation of the projects in the city in order to attract more participation from the citizens. In addition, due to the importance of the citizens’ high consideration of the separated waste, it is required that the authorities take the effects of waste separation more seriously into account with regards to the economic benefits of the projects as well as providing the citizens with the minimal tangible economic benefits. It is also recommended to run more practical programs that can increase the working women’s assistance for with the project along with offering special training for the less educated ones.