تخمين و بهبود قابليت اطمينان حركت گلوله 23ميلي‌متري در لوله‌ي سلاح با استفاده از شبكه‌هاي بيزين و تجزيه و تحليل حالات بالقوه خرابي با نظريه‌ي فازي

Assessment and Improvement of the Reliability of the Pellets 23 mm Gun Tube Using Bayesian Networks and Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis

روند فعلي موجود در صنايع مختلف اين نكته را اذعان مي‌دارد‌ كه‌ برقراري سيستمي با قابليت ارجاع سريع ميزان خرابي هاي محصول يا برآورد قابليت اطمينان آن، از ضروريات هر صنعت است. يكي از محصولات صنايع نظامي گلوله‌هاي ضدهوايي است كه در برابر تهديدات دشمن مورد استفاده قرار مي‌گيرد. در اين تحقيق براي محاسبه‌ي قابليت اطمينان و ارتقا عملكرد سامانه‌ي سلاح مهمات، ابتدا با استفاده از نمودار جريان كاركردي محصول (FFBD‌) و نمودار كاركردي‌ (‌FBD) تمام بخش‌هاي محصول، و در ادامه با استفاده از FBD سطوح بالاي مربوط به تحليل‌ درخت خطا (FTA‌) شناسايي مي‌شود. پس از آن نمودار قابليت اطمينان (RBD‌) تهيه و با استفاده از تكنيك بيزين فازي قابليت اطمينان تخمين زده مي‌شود. سپس با استفاده از تجزيه و تحليل حالات بالقوه خرابي و آثار آن (FMEA‌) به‌صورت فازي خطاهاي طراحي را شناسايي كرده و آن را بهبود مي‌بخشند.

The process of development and expansion of advanced industries with abundant industrial production in the current era reveals the necessity of the implementation of preventive methods in dealing with possible failures. This necessity becomes more evident in industries whose real value of produce encompasses a large volume of potential assets (e.g. the munitions industry). Reliability is one of the most important qualitative characteristics of components, products, and large, complex systems that play a crucial role in the performance of such equipment. Modern engineered products, from each component to large systems, must be designed and produced in such a way as to have the necessary reliability. In every industry, especially the aerospace industry, it would be dangerous and harmful from different economic, human, and political aspects when a system fails or becomes dysfunctional. The current trends in various industries indicate that establishing a system capable of quickly referring the failure rate of a product, or estimating its reliability, is a requirement for each industry. The reliability of a system is the probability that the system will perform a given task under certain conditions and at certain time intervals. According to this definition, it is obvious that reliability indicates the continuation of functionality without failure (e.g. in accomplishing a mission). Therefore, reliability is defined as the probability that a system or component remain functional without failure. Reliability is of crucial importance in the arms industry. One of the products of the arms industry is the anti-aircraft missile, which is used against enemy threats. If such a product is functional or becomes functional late, there will be irreparable damage, which itself adds to the importance of the product. In this study, first FFBD and FBD are used in order to calculate reliability and improve the functionality of munitions and weapon systems. Then, higher levels of FTA are identified using a FBD. After that, RBD is prepared, and reliability is estimated using the Fuzzy-Bayesian technique. Finally, design errors are identified and improved using a Fuzzy FMEA.