مطالعه تاثير اندازه دولت بر شاخص توسعه انساني در طي سه دهه پس از انقلاب (1357-1387)

A Study on Impact of Government Size on Human Development Index, Three Decades after the Revolution

اين مقاله به مطالعه تاثير اندازه دولت بر شاخص توسعه انساني در طي سه دهه گذشته در ايران مي‏ پردازد. ازآنجاكه طي اين سه دهه هزينه‌هاي دولت به موازات شاخص توسعه انساني روند افزايشي داشته است، اين تصور به وجود آمده كه ماهيت رفاهي دولت رو به گسترش بوده است. با وجود اين، نتايج الگو‌هاي اقتصادسنجي نشان مي‌دهد كه هرچند افزايش هزينه‌هاي سرمايه‌اي (عمراني) بر شاخص توسعه انساني تاثير مثبت داشته، رشد هزينه‌هاي مصرفي (جاري) نه تنها داراي تاثير مطلوبي نبوده، بلكه در طي زمان اثر منفي آن بر اين شاخص گذاشته است. به علاوه، نتايج تحليل داده ‏ها نشان داد كه دولت‌ در ايران از الگوهاي بودجه پيشنهادي سازمان ملل تبعيت نمي‌كند و ادعاي دولت درباب توسعه و ارتقاي كيفيت زندگي در حد شعار بوده ‌‌است. همچنين تحقيق آشكار ساخت كه عوامل ديگري چون رشد جمعيت نيز بر سير صعودي شاخص توسعه انساني موثر بوده است.

This paper aims to study the effect of the government size on human development index over the last three decades in post-revolutionary Iran. Since during these decades the government expenditures have inclined to increase, there has often been a notion among some scholars that the welfare nature of the government has intensified. This has seemingly enforced the idea that the increase of the government disbursements has resulted in the enhancement of human development index in Iran. Nevertheless, the findings of this study, based on econometric models, indicate that despite the fact that the increase of capital expenditures has had a positive effect on the country’s human development index, from the point of view of growth in consuming (current) expenditures, not only it has had no positive or reasonable effect but has had negative effect on the index. In addition, findings indicated that governments in Iran do not follow from the budget models recommended by UN and the government claim pertaining the improvement of people’s quality of life has only been a slogan. Furthermore, the study concludes that other factors like the growth of population has affected the increasing trends of the human development index that should be taken into account in the analysis.