تعيين ميزان ريسك عدم قطعيت هاي موجود در قراردادهاي آزادراهي به روش BOT با استفاده از روش‌هاي آماري (مطالعه‌ي موردي): آزادراه ساوه- سلفچگان

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE LEVEL OF RISK IN EXISTING UNCERTAINTY OF FREEWAY CONTRACTS BY THE BOT METHOD, CASE STUDY: SAVEH FREEWAY SALAFCHEGAN

قراردادهاي BOT را مي‌توان يك روش مطمين جذب سرمايه‌ي خصوصي دانست كه علاوه بر جبران كمبود منابع دولتي، كنترل استراتژيك دولت را بر پروژه‌ها حفظ خواهد كرد. ايجاد ساختاري براي مديريت ريسك‌هاي پروژه‌هاي آزادراهي، اساس هر پروژه‌ي BOT در اين خصوص است، كه مي‌تواند تضمين‌كننده‌ي موفقيت پروژه باشد. هدف اين مطالعه تلاش براي ايجاد ساختار مديريت ريسك در پروژه‌هاي BOT بزرگراهي كشور است. لذا در اين نوشتار با توجه به تجربيات گذشته در اين زمينه و جمع‌آوري نظرات متخصصان كشور با مطالعات ميداني گسترده و اطلاعات آماري به‌دست‌آمده سعي شده است ميزان ريسك در عدم‌قطعيت‌هاي موجود در پروژه‌هاي BOT آزادراه‌هاي ايران با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS مورد بررسي قرار گيرد. در اين مورد به مطالعه‌ي موردي آزادراه ساوه - سلفچگان پرداخته شده است و نتايج به‌دست‌آمده مي‌تواند كمك بسياري به كارفرمايان و پيمانكاراني داشته باشد كه مي‌خواهند پروژه‌هايي از اين قبيل را اجرا كنند.

Since their establishment, governments have been the main suppliers of resources for infrastructure projects, and provide a major source of tax revenue and revenue from national resources. On the one hand, there is a need to implement infrastructure projects in developing countries and increase national welfare, and on the other hand the external debt of Third World countries and the stress state budgets are rising. Further development of the private sector and emphasis on the privatization of government agencies in the 70s and 80s, created new ways to finance infrastructure projects, as an alternative to the use of public funds or borrowing from foreign sources. This resulted in the formation and development of various forms of public-private partnership, one of which is Kian. Also, the shortage of government resources and the extreme need to fund national development have required governments to absorb private sectors in the foundational projects of their countries. BOT can be considered a reliable way of absorbing private assets, which retains the government’s strategic control over establishments. Despite all its positive characteristics, however, this method has not reached its goals. Numerous instances can be found where BOT projects have not reached a desirable conclusion. Failure of such projects imposes heavy financial and social expenses on all the contract parties, especially the host country, and this is why governments and private companies seek a structure that can support such projects towards successful achievement of their goals. The basic goal of each BOT project is to make a structure of risk management which can ensure the success of the project. In this article, according to related past events and large numbers of field studies by specialists to gain statistical information, an attempt has been made to study the risk rate and lack of surety in Iranʹs freeway BOT projects using SPSS software.