به‌كارگيري سيستم خبره‌ي فازي و الگوريتم ژنتيك جهت امتيازدهي به عملكرد مديريت ايمني در كارگاه‌هاي ساخت و ساز ايران: بررسي عوامل محيط ايمني و تجربه‌ي شخصي

A Fuzzy Expert System and Genetic Algorithms to Score the Safety Management Performance in Construction Sites of Iran: Considering Safety Climate and Personal Experience

پيمانكاران صنعت ساخت و ساز با تهيه‌ي بيمه‌ي حوادث كارگري، ريسك‌ها را به شركت‌هاي بيمه منتقل مي‌كنند. هر چه عملكرد مديريت ايمني در يك كارگاه ساخت و ساز ضعيف‌تر باشد، ريسك بيمه‌كردن اين كارگاه براي شركت‌هاي بيمه بيشتر خواهد بود و بالعكس. بنابراين امتيازدهي به عملكرد مديريت ايمني در كارگاه‌هاي ساخت و ساز، كمك مناسبي براي شركت‌هاي بيمه در راستاي تعيين حق بيمه‌ي بهينه خواهد بود. در اين پژوهش با مطالعه‌ي ادبيات موضوع و مشاوره با افراد خبره، فاكتورهاي اصلي تاثيرگذار در ايمني يك كارگاه ساخت و ساز شناسايي و سپس يك سيستم خبره‌ي فازي براي امتيازدهي به عملكرد ايمني در كارگاه‌هاي ساخت و ساز پيشنهاد شده است. به منظور افزايش دقت، سيستم خبره طراحي و پارامترهاي سيستم خبره‌ي فازي پيشنهادي با استفاده از الگوريتم ژنتيك بهينه‌سازي شده‌اند. نتايج حاصل از ارزيابي سيستم خبره‌ي فازي طراحي‌شده، كارآمدبودن اين سيستم را تاييد مي‌كند.

Construction is a dangerous and risky industry with a high accident rate. Safety, therefore, is deemed to be an important issue, and various agencies endeavor to control accidents through different approaches. Contractors procure worker compensation insurance to transfer these risks to insurance companies, but, as the safety management performance decreases, the risk of insuring this site for the insurance companies increases. Therefore, giving a score to the safety management performance in a construction site will help insurance companies to quote optimal premiums. If a contractor’s real-time safety management system is robust, the contractor will get a cost-effective insurance cover, which will enable the contractor to compete better in tenders. Those contractors who do not have robust safety management systems in place will be penalized by higher premiums. Meanwhile, this approach will automatically set risky contractors aside and motivate contractors to invest in safety measures in their organizations. In this research, by considering the safety climate, personal experience factors, studying the literature and consulting with experts, the main factors effecting safety in the construction sites of Iran were recognized. Since all of these factors are linguistics, a fuzzy expert system was proposed for scoring their safety management performance. The parameters of the designed expert system, including Yagerʹs t-norm, Yagerʹs s-norm, Yagerʹs complement, Yagerʹs inference engine and Yagerʹs defuzzification parameters, were optimized by genetic algorithms. The performance of the proposed fuzzy expert system for scoring the safety management performance in the construction sites of Iran was tested using the mean squared error (MSE) method. This method was utilized to quantify the difference between values implied by the designed fuzzy expert system and the true values of the quantity being estimated. Testing results validate the effectiveness of the designed fuzzy expert system for scoring the safety management performance in construction sites of Iran.