پيش‌بيني عملكرد شغلي با استفاده از بهينه‌سازي چندهدفه و شبكه‌هاي عصبي از نوع GMDH به‌منظور بهبود فرايند گزينش كاركنان

Predicting the Job Performance by Using Multi-Objective Optimization and GMDH-Type Neural Network to Improve Personnel Selection Process

در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از الگوريتم ژنتيك براي بهينه‌سازي چندهدفه‌ي شبكه‌هاي عصبي از نوع GMDH، مدل حاكم بر عملكرد شغلي كاركنان فعلي سازمان استخراج مي‌شود كه قادر است با وجود پيچيدگي رفتار در حوزه ي منابع انساني، عملكرد كاركنان را با حداقل خطاي پيش‌بيني و آموزش، براساس موثرترين ورودي ها پيش‌بيني كند. بنابراين مي توان به‌منظور گزينش كاركنان، براساس مدل استخراج شده، ورودي هاي مرتبط را از متقاضي دريافت و عملكرد آتي وي را تخمين زد. به‌دليل ماهيت مشاغل مورد بررسي، از ابعاد هوش هيجاني و متغيرهاي فردي به عنوان ورودي استفاده شده است. با وجود عدم قطعيت در ماهيت منابع انساني، ضريب همبستگي 995/0 و RMSE برابر 06/0 در مقايسه ي مقادير پيش‌بيني شده با مقادير واقعي، بيان‌گر دقت بسيار بالاي مدل و حداكثر انطباق‌پذيري عملكرد شغلي پيش‌بيني شده با عملكرد واقعي است.

Failure or success of an organization is directly related to the way in which human resource is recruited. Personnel selection is a complex system whose objective is to assess the differences among the candidates and to select the most appropriate person. Achieving this goal can be facilitated by predicting the future performance; however, cognitive limitations of the human mind make the behavior of unknown and/or very complex systems difficult to predict. Using current employee performance data to predict the future behavior of the applicants is an interesting area. Since personnel selection system is coupled with the ambiguity and uncertainty values, firstly, it is necessary to model the imprecise modes of reasoning to make rational decisions in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. Secondly, optimal design of model parameters based on the existing data should be considered in order to minimize errors and to maximize adaptability of the model. In this regard, the present study identifies effective input variables in predicting the output after designing the personnel selection system, whose output is job performance and its dimensions. The “Emotional Quotient (EQ)” and “individual variables” are also selected as input variables. Then, input and output data are collected from operational personnel work in Guilan Gas Company. Next, an approach that utilizes Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is applied for multi-objective design of group method data handling (GMDH)-type neural networks in order to model the job performance. In this algorithm, training error (TE) and prediction error (PE) are simultaneously minimized. However, the nature of human resource is filled up with uncertainty and inherent ambiguity, the correlation coefficient is 0.9956 and RMSEA is just 0.06 which indicate high accuracy of extracted model and the maximum adaptability to predict job performance with actual performance. It is worth mentioning that the extracted models of performance dimensions are effective for 84% to 96% of the data, and the performance variable is exactly the same as the real value. Therefore, the presented model is able to receive some information as inputs and to predict the future performance which has the minimum error. Accordingly, the most effective input variables in predicting performance are also optimally determined.