درآمدي انتقادي بر مفهوم‌ و شاخص‌هاي بي‌ثباتي سياسي: به‌سوي مدلي جامع و روزآمد براي سنجش بي‌ثباتي سياسي

Introduction to Political Instability: Towards a Comprehensive and Updated Model

در دهه هاي اخير بي‌ثباتي هاي سياسي به‌دليل فراواني ، آثار و پيامدهايشان به كانون توجه دولت ها و پژوهشگران تبديل شده اند. در ايران نيز طي سال‌هاي اخير مطالعات و پژوهش‌هاي قابل ملاحظه اي در اين‌‌باره آغاز شده است. با اين وجود، مطالعات ايراني هنوز چندان از حد كليات و يا اقتباس مفهوم‏سازي ها و مدل هاي قديمي فراتر نرفته است. اين مقاله بر اين مفروض استوار است كه هرگونه مطالعه و پژوهش روشمند، دقيق و راهگشا در مورد اين موضوع، نيازمند مواجهه‌ي انتقادي با ادبيات موجود و بازانديشي در مفاهيم، شاخص­ها و ابزارهاي سنجش و تحليل بي‌ثباتي سياسي است. اين مقاله همين هدف را در مورد ابعادِ توصيفيِ بي­ثباتي سياسي دنبال كرده است؛ در اين مقاله مفهوم‌سازي ها، شاخص ها و مدل هاي موجود، مورد نقد و ارزيابي قرار گرفته و سعي گرديده بر اساسِ تحولات اخير جهاني و هم‌چنين تجربيات بومي، مفهوم‌سازي و شاخص‌سازي روشن‌تر و كارآمدتري براي سنجش بي ثباتي سياسي ارائه شود. در انتها نيز بيان مي‌گردد كه در سنجش بي‌ثباتي سياسي لازم است متغيرهاي ذهني (نظام ادراكات سياسي و فرهنگ سياسي جوامع موردِ مطالعه) و ابعاد تاريخي (پيشينه‌ها و تجربيات سياسي مردم و دولت‌ها) هم‌چنين گونه هاي جديد رويدادهاي بي ثبات كننده (كه به‌ويژه نتيجه فرآيندهايي چون جهاني شدن، رسانه اي شدن و مجازي شدن سياست هستند) مورد توجه قرار گيرند. مدل پيشنهادي اين مقاله براي سنجش بي‌ثباتي با توجه به چنين يافته‌ها و ملاحظاتي تنظيم شده است.

Purpose: Political instability is an issue that has always been attracted attention rulers and scholars. in recent decades to research on this subject has been developed. In Iran, the studies and researches on this topic are increasingly expending. However, this studies and research are not yet accurate and methodically adequate. In additional, descriptive and explanatory theoretical framework or model that applied in this research are very old and inappropriate. For exle, in most of these studies Saunders model used to belong to 197o. However, in recent decades has been occurred Significant changes in the socio political sphere and patterns of political instability in the world. In addition, after revolutionary Irans political opening and complicated political conflicts have increased the need for this type of studies. This paper is based on the premise that systematic and exact study of political instability require critical encounter with existing literature and to rethink the concepts, indicators, model and tools of measurement and analysis. Therefore the purpose of this article is to describe aspects of political instability.Design/Methodology/Approach: In this article in one hand criticized the concepts and indicators of political instability based on the inductive model (Ideal Type of political stability and instability). On the other hand, attempted to provide clarified concepts and useful indicators for assessing political instability based on the evidences of recent changes in the internal and external political environment. Therefore, in this Article we useful both axiomatic and Quasi experimental Methods.Findings: In this article, distinction political instability from synonym concept and categories such as political dynamic, political changes, political disorder, and political collapse. This article shows that a comprehensive and updated descriptive model of political instability must to be contains not only the indicators of of challenges and changes in Government and political regime but also political leaders and actors Such as rapid changes in political norms, attitudes and policies. Also in this model political instabilities have been separated and classified based on criteria such as type (violent or nonviolent), source (internal or external of polity or country) and target (structures or norms or actors or policies) of destabilizing evidences. And in measurement of level and dimensions of political instability we must attention on severity, extent. and frequency of destabilizing events.Originality/Value: This article concluded that political instability has both objective and subjective aspect. In measuring and explaining of political instability we must consider both of objective factors (such as political perceptions and culture, historical backgrounds and experiences of the political actors) and subjective factor (such as socio economic cleavage and political conflict) . We also must consider the changes and processes such as globalization, virtualization and mediatization of politics.