تبيين ساختاري علل فروپاشي دولت پهلوي

Structural Analysis on the Overthrow of the Second Pahlavis

وقوع انقلاب اسلامي نظريات مسلط جامعه شناسي سياسي در حوزه مطالعات انقلاب و رابطه دولت و جامعه را به طور نسبي تحت تاثير خود قرار داد. مهم‌ترين سوال‌ها پيرامون اين حادثه سياسي در تاريخ معاصر ايران مربوط به «چرايي و چگونگي» وقوع آن است. هدف اصلي در اين مقاله پاسخ به «چرايي» ساختاري فروپاشي رژيم پهلوي دوم است. در پاسخ به اين «چرايي» به سه علت/ فرضيه ساختاري و مكانيسم‏هاي علّي آن اشاره خواهد شد كه نشان مي‌دهند رژيم سابق از طريق چه مكانيسم هايي دچار آسيب‌پذيري شد. فرضيه اول معطوف به ماهيت دولت سلطاني در دوران رژيم پهلوي دوم است كه آن را به عنوان يكي از علل تاثيرگذار در فروپاشي رژيم مدّ نظر دارد. فرضيه دوم در صدد است تا ماهيت رانتي رژيم شاه و سازوكارهاي منتج از اين ماهيت را به عنوان دومين علّت آسيب‌پذيري دولت مورد ارزيابي قرار دهد. فرضيه سوم فشارهاي خارجي (ايالات متحده) به منظور استقرار دولتي دست نشانده و وابسته در منطقه را به عنوان سومين علّت آسيب‌پذيري معرفي مي‌كند. تركيب اين سه پاسخ به مساله آسيب‌پذيري ساختاري رژيم پهلوي، مدلي نسبتاً جامع ارائه مي‌دهد كه از طريق آن مي‌توان بخشي از ناكارآمدي دولت در عصر پهلوي دوم را تبيين كرد. اين مقاله با روشي كيفي و تاريخي و با حمايت داده‌هاي كتابخانه‌اي نشان مي‌دهد كه وجه ساختاري وقوع انقلاب اسلامي ايران محصول تركيب ماهيت سلطاني، رانتي و وابسته رژيم پهلوي بوده است.

Purpose:The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question as to why the second Pahlavi government became vulnerable and paved the path for the Islamic revolution. Moreover, this article tries to evaluate the political behavior of the Shah with structural and stateoriented responses. The other goal is providing an ‘analysis model’ for social and political scholars in order to apply it in terms of comparative studies with other cases of revolutions/quasi revolutions which are similar to sociopolitical context of Iran. Design/Methodology/Approach: The main methodological strategy of this article is qualitative approach and historical studies. In reaction to the “why” question of regime collapse, three structural hypotheses /answers will be mentioned which demonstrate the mechanisms through which the ancient regime became vulnerable. The first hypothesis is related to the sultanistic nature of the Pahlavi government. The second hypothesis is seeking to consider the rentier nature of government and its mechanisms which stem from beingas other reason of vulnerability. The third hypothesis presents foreign pressures and decreasing of United States supports than the Shah’s government. The combination of these answers to the problem of vulnerability puts forth a relative comprehensive analysis model which can explain some aspects of state’s ineffectiveness in the second Pahlavi era. Findings:The historical review of the most significant sociopolitical events during 19411979 shows that the Pahlavi government experienced the process of vulnerability through sultanism, rentierism and dependency to the United States. Actually, the state vulnerability on the one hand resulted from extension of the Shah despotic power, personal authority, and corruption of his relatives as well as lack of rule of law and on the other hand, depended on the autonomy of state from social classes, establishment of one party system, and extension of patronage policy. The crisis of decrease in President Carter’s support and his pressures in terms of human rights in Iran was the last factor which accelerated the process of vulnerability and approached the Shah into vulnerability. According to these findings, the proposed model, structurally, is capable to explain the reasons of Pahlavi regime overthrowing. Originality/Value: With regards to the most important sociological and political sciences on the studies of Islamic Revolution in Iran, this article is taken account as a new step and insight for multi factors understanding of Pahlavi government’s vulnerability. Although some scholars considered the reasons and roots of the Shah’s vulnerability in light of variety of factors, the presented structural/stateoriented model and combinational hypothesis in this article can enrich the literature of sociopolitical research on Islamic Revolution studies.