تأثير نابرابري درآمد بر تابع تقاضاي واردات كالاهاي مصرفي ايران

The Effect of Income Inequality on Demand Function of Imports of Consumption Goods in Iran

توزيع درآمد چگونگي سهم افراد جامعه از درآمدملي و درجه نابرابري موجود بين افراد جامعه را توصيف مي كند. زيرا افزايش نابرابري موجب افزايش قدرت خريد اقشار پردرآمد و افزايش تقاضاي كالاهاي باكشش مصرفي كه عمدتاً لوكس وارداتي هستند، مي گردد باعث تغيير در تركيب كالاهاي مصرفي داخلي و وارداتي مي گردد. لذا مطالعه حاضر به بررسي تاثير نابرابري درآمد برواردات كالاهاي مصرفي ايران طي دوره 1391-1348مي‌پردازد. مدل شناسايي شده با استفاده از روش خود رگرسيون برداري(VAR) برآورد مي‌شود. نتايج تخمين نشان مي‌دهد نرخ ارز واقعي اثري منفي و بيشترين تأثير را بر واردات كالاهاي مصرفي داشته است. توليد ناخالص داخلي نيز داراي تأثيري مثبت و معنادار بر واردات كالاهاي مصرفي بوده است و همچنين متغير نابرابري درآمدي داراي تأثيري مثبت بر واردات كالاهاي مصرفي بوده است. در واقع با كاهش نابرابري درآمدي و بهبود وضعيت توزيع درآمد، تمايل به استفاده از كالاهاي مصرفي توليد داخل، افزايش و از ميزان واردات كالاهاي مصرفي كاسته خواهد شد.

Income distribution describes how people share of national income and degree of inequality between people in society. Increasing income inequality leads to change in the composition of domestic and imported consumption goods. Because inequality increases will be increase the purchasing power of the rich and to increase the demand for consumption goods with high elasticity that is mainly imported luxury. Therefore this study investigated the effects of income inequality on Iranian imports of consumption goods during the period of 19692012. In this regard using by vector auto regressive (VAR) approach was examined relationship between imports of consumption goods and GDP, real exchange rate and income inequality. Estimation results show that imports of consumption goods with interruptions has had the most effect on the import of consumption goods. Also the real exchange rate is expected to have reverse relationship with imports of consumption goods. GDP also has a positive and significant effect on imports of consumption goods and variable of income inequality also has a positive effect on imports of consumption goods. In fact, by reducing income inequality and improving the income distribution will be increase tendency of use of consumption goods of domestic product, and will be reduced the amount of imports of consumption goods.