مدل سازي توزيع بهينه بودجه بخش كشاورزي در استان خراسان رضوي

Modeling Budget Optimum Allocation of Khorasan Razavi Province Agriculture Sector

كمبود سرمایه و عدم توزیع بهینه بودجه یكی از تنگناهای حصول توسعه یافتگی در كشورهای در حال توسعه بوده و از این منظر بخش كشاورزی در مقایسه با دیگر بخش‏های اقتصادی از بیشترین محدودیت برخوردار بوده است. در این مطالعه به مدل‏سازی توزیع بهینه بودجه بخش كشاورزی در استان خراسان رضوی پرداخته شد. برای این منظور داده¬های تحقیق طی دوره 94-1385 از طریق آمار سازمان جهاد كشاورزی خراسان رضوی و پرسشنامه¬های توزیع شده بین خبرگان گردآوری شد. جهت مدل¬سازی ابتدا توزیع بهینه بودجه بخش (فصل) كشاورزی بین برنامه‏های این فصل با تلفیق سه شاخص: تحلیل نظر خبرگان با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)6 ، میانگین سهم هر برنامه از بودجه بخش در سال¬های برنامه چهارم توسعه و میانگین سهم هر برنامه از بودجه بخش در سال¬های برنامه پنجم توسعه استان، تعیین شد. سپس با استفاده از تكنیك دلفی7 شاخص¬های استعداد هر برنامه تعیین گردید. پس از آن شاخص¬های تعیین شده با استفاده از فرآیند AHP وزن¬دهی شده و در نهایت با بكارگیری تكنیك تاكسونومی عددی8، توزیع بهینه بودجه برنامه‏ها بین شهرستان‏ها مدل‏سازی شد. با توجه به این¬كه مطالعه حاضر برای نخستین بار مدلی علمی و جامع برای نحوه توزیع بهینه بودجه بخش كشاورزی در ایران فراهم آورده است، به سازمان¬های جهادكشاورزی كشور پیشنهاد می¬شود از نتایج آن استفاده نمایند.

Introduction: Stock shortage is one of the development impasses in developing countries and trough it the agriculture sector has faced with the most limitation. The share of Iran’s agricultural sector from total investments after the Islamic revolution (1979) has been just 5.5 percent. This fact causes low efficiency in Iran’s agriculture sector. For instance per each 1 cubic meter of water in Iran’s agriculture sector, less that 1 kilogram dry food produced and each Iranian farmer achieves less annual income and has less mechanization in comparison with similar countries in Iran’s 1404 perspective document. Therefore, it is clear that increasing investment in agriculture sector, optimize the budget allocation for this sector is mandatory however has not been adequately and scientifically revised until now. Thus, in this research optimum budget allocation of Iran- Khorasan Razavi province agriculture sector was modeled. Materials and Methods: In order to model the optimum budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector at first optimum budget allocation between agriculture programs was modeled with compounding three indexes: 1. Analyzing the priorities of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector experts with the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), 2. The average share of agriculture sector programs from 4th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector, and 3.The average share of agriculture sector programs from 5th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector. Then, using Delphi technique potential indexes of each program was determined. After that, determined potential indexes were weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and finally, using numerical taxonomy model to optimize allocation of the program’s budget between cities based on two scenarios. Required data, also was gathered from the budget and planning office of Khorasan Razavi’s Jahad Keshavarzi organization during 2006-2015. They were collected through distributed binary comparison questionnaires related to AHP model between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015 and distributed questionnaires related to Delphi technique between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015. Indeed, Super decision and Taxonomy software were applied to analyze the gathered data. Results and Discussion: Results of budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector using three mentioned indexes showed that between 8 programs, P1 and P6 have the most and least share, respectively. The results of the Delphi technique for determining potential indexes of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs indicated that totally there are 62 indexes. Findings of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs showed that for budget allocation of P1 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Kalat and Davarzan cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P2 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Bardaskan and Kalat cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P3 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Joghatai cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P4 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Jovein and Torghabe Shandiz cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P5 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Chenaran and Neishabour cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P6 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P7 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Saleh Abad cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. Finally, for budget allocation of P8 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. Conclusion: The study concludes that the agriculture sector budget of Khorasan Razavi Province’s has not been allocated optimally. Therefore, paying attention to this fact that agriculture sector budget allocation which carried out previously between various programs, have been provided different instructions for opposite ideas always caused to challenge between beneficiary groups. This study provided a scientific and comprehensive model for budget allocation of agriculture sector between programs and cities using agriculture experts, and can be suggested to governors and Jahad Keshavarzi organizations to apply the results.