پديد آورندگان :
كرمي، جلال دانشگاه تربيت مدرس، تهران - گروه سنجش از دور و GIS , محمدي، امينه دانشگاه تربيت مدرس، تهران , شريفي كيا، محمد دانشگاه تربيت مدرس، تهران - گروه سنجش از دور و GIS
كليدواژه :
زلزله , انعطاف پذيري , AHP , روش OWA , منطقه 12 تهران
چكيده فارسي :
افزايش حوادث طبيعي تعميق آن متاثر از فعاليتهاي انساني، خسارتهاي متعددي را مخصوصاَ در كشورهاي در حال توسعه اموجب شده است.خسارت هاي مالي و جاني ناشي از حوادث طبيعي در جهان و مخصوصا در كشورهاي كمتر توسعه يافته، متاثر از زيرساخت هاي ضعيف اجتماعي و اقتصادي، روز به روز در حال افزايش مي باشد. در ميان حوادث طبيعي، زلزله، به دليل غيرقابل پيش بيني بودن، يكي از مخربترين اين حوادث به شمار مي رود.ايران يكي از زلزله خيزترين كشورهاي جهان است و شهرهاي آن بر اثر اين پديده بسيار آسيب ديده اند. در بين شهرهاي ايران، تهران به عنوان كلانشهر اول كشوربا توجه به جمعيت متراكم، توسعه فيزيكي نامناسب، تراكم سازه اي، و عدم رعايت استانداردها، با خطر جدي تري روبه رو است.هدف از اين پژوهش، بررسي فضايي انعطاف پذيري منطقه 12 تهران پس از زلزله مي باشد. در اين مطالعه، ابتدا داده ها ي منطقه 12تهرانآماده و استانداردسازي گرديد. سپس با استفاده از روشAHP، ميزان ريسك پذيري منطقه 12 تهران تحليل شد. در نهايت با توجه به نقشه ميزان ريسك پذيري منطقه، به كمك روش OWAنقشه نهايي ميزان انعطاف پذيري آن پس از زلزله حاصل گرديد. نتايج به دست آمده نشان داد كه محلات شماره 2و12 (بهارستان و دروازه غار شوش) كمترين انعطاف پذيري را پس از زلزله دارند.
چكيده لاتين :
Resilience are concepts that are finding increasing currency in several fields of research as well as in various policy and practitioner communities engaged in global environmental change science, climate change, sustainability science, disaster risk-reduction and famine interventions (Vogel, et.al, 2007). Where the risk is a probability of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action (Benson, et.al, 2004). Among natural disasters, earthquakes, due to the unpredictable nature of these events, are one of the most destructive. Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world that its cities most affected by this phenomenon. Among the cities of Iran, Tehran, as the country's first metropolis, due to dense population, poor physical development, structural density, and lack of standards, is potentially facing a serious threat. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial flexibility of Tehran over the region 12 after the earthquake incidence. The present study is dealt with the data preparing and analysis using geospatial methods. The several geospatial data such as Peak Ground Acceleration (AGA) map, urban structure, infrastructure and population collected from Tehran Disaster Management Center were provided and analysis based some GIS known algorithms. In other to urban spatial resilience zonation the AHP (analytical Hierarchy Process) was implemented to generation risk map. Finally OWA (Ordered Weighted Average) method was implemented in order to Production spatial flexibility map of earthquake incidence over the District 12 of Tehran. AHP model uses of priorities straight experts, but OWA provides of control the level of compensation and risk-taking in a decision. Using the conceptual of fuzzy quantifier with OWA makes the qualitative data analysis enter to decision. According to flexibility of the final map with fuzzy operator (All) equivalent to the operator MIN, the worst result Was obtained and resulting the highest risk and lowest flexibility respectively (Districts Nos. 2,12,7,8 and 11).By taking all the criteria of a criterion without compensation by other criteria as "non-risk" is obtained . Map obtained with fuzzy operator (Half) has the high potential to provide suitable options, because in addition to integration criteria the importance of each parameter based on the weight given to the criteria are considered. In this map Districts Nos.2.6 and 8 (Baharestan, Emamzadeyahya and Sanglajedarkhangah) respectively were most Risk to earthquakes and therefore less flexibility to the earthquake. The map obtained with the fuzzy operator "Atleast one" is equivalent to MAX operator districts Nos. 2,12,7 and 8 (Baharestan ,DarvazehGhar of Shush,Abshardardar and Sanglajedarkhangah) respectively were most Risk to earthquakes and therefore less flexibility to the earthquake. The fuzzy conceptual map quantifier showed that districts Nos. 2 and 12 (Baharestan and DarvazehGhar of Shush) were most vulnerable and therefore less flexibility to the earthquake as final results.
