بررسي رفتارهاي مديريتي كشاورزان در هنگام خشكسالي به عنوان پاسخ هاي پيشگيرانه: مورد مطالعه شهرستان دهلران

Investigating farmers’ behaviour management in drought period as prevention responses: the case of Dehloran district

كشاورزان در كشورهاي در حال توسعه در ميان ساير قشر هاي جامعه در برابر اثرات تغييرات اقليم به ويژه خشكسالي آسيب پذيرتر مي باشند، فرض بر اين است كه مسائل ابعاد رواني نقش مهمي در پيش بيني نيات كشاورزان و پاسخ واقعي آنها ايفا مي كند. با اين حال، تحقيقات كمي بر روي مكانيسم هاي رواني كه تسهيل كننده يا محدود كننده رفتار سازگاري مي باشد انجام شده در اين مطالعه به منظور شناخت محرك هاي برجسته و موانع سازگاري با خشكسالي از مدل اعتقاد سلامت استفاده شده است. نمونه آماري اين پژوهش به تعداد 320 نفر از كشاورزان شهرستان دهلران از استان ايلام كه بر اساس جدول كرجسي و مورگان انتخاب شدند و از روش نمونه گيري تصادفي چند مرحله اي براي انتخاب نمونه مورد مطالعه بهره گرفته شد. ابزار جمع آوري اطلاعات پرسشنامه اي محقق ساخت بود كه روايي صوري آن توسط متخصصين مورد تاييد قرار گرفت. پايايي پرسشنامه ها با ضرايب آلفاي كرونباخ بررسي شد كه بين 0/65 تا 0/95 بود كه نشان دهنده پايايي مناسب ابزار پژوهش مي باشد. نتايج نشان داد، رفتار كشاورزان براي سازگاري با خشكسالي به طور عمده توسط نيت، شدت آسيب پذيري درك شده، آسيب پذيري درك شده و منافع درك شده پيش بيني شده است. اين يافته هاي مي تواند اطلاعات لازم براي سياستگزاري هايي جهت سازگاري با خشكسالي در بين كشاورزان فراهم كند.

Objectives: Drought is a recurrent phenomenon and natural hazards which can happen in all parts of the world. It has serious challenges with significant negative impacts on the different sectors. In terms of people affected، it is the number one risk of all natural hazards، with more than 1 billion people affected in the last decade. Without any doubt drought poses a great threat to households، communities and societies that are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. For decades now، Iran has been facing droughts so severe that its government was forced to accept foreign aid for only the second time since the revolution in 1979. Many villages particularly in east and south east provinces were evacuated due to lack of water، and more than a million head of cattle perished across the country. Many farm workers lost their jobs، and، in the different part of the country، the largest body of freshwater in Iran – Lakes – ceased to exist. This situation is likely to worsen in the future، with an already observed increase in droughts and predicted increases in extreme droughts in the future due to climate change. For example، a major World Bank report confirms that this is different. Iran faces، not the familiar periodic dry spells، but a severe water crisis that is made even worse by recent high rates of population growth. Climate change، though not the cause of this crisis، is predicted to make it even worse، with per capita water availability being halved by 2050. The crisis is thus all set to turn into a super-crisis، with ever more land being taken out of production over the coming decades. However، the effects of droughts to human society depend not only on the severity of the event (such as lack of rainfall) but also on the resources the society and its members have to cope with this shock. Such resources can include formal market mechanisms as well as informal/traditional ones، e.g. from crop insurance to kinship arrangements. Consequently، dependent on the coping strategies available، the short and long term effects may differ greatly among sub-groups within the affected population. Knowledge of what farmers do in response to these events can broaden adaptation options and improve resilience within the sector. Among other dimensions it is assumed that psychological issues play an important role in predicting farmers’ intentions and actual responses. In this context، a study was carried out to identify the most prominent drivers of، and impediments to، drought adaptation، using Health beliefs model. Methods: his study is an applied research and with the survey method was conducted. A sample of 320 farmers was DEHLORAN city، Illam through a two-stage random sampling was stratified. Data for this study were collected using a structured questionnaire. In designing the questionnaire، a 5-point Likert-type scaling was used، ranging from 1 (completely disagree) to 5 (completely agree). The face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a group of experts. an‎d with Using SPSS software (version 20) The reliability of the main scales of the questionnaires was examined by Cronbach Alpha coefficients، which ranged from 0.65 to 0.90، indicating the tool of study is reliable. Results: The results reveal a significant correlation between adaptation behavior with the Perceived benefits، perceived Vulnerability، perceived vulnerability severity، Vulnerability perceived، self-efficacy، general beliefs and intention. Also between barriers perceived and cue to action with adaptation behavior there is negative correlation. The results of regression analysis showed that the three variables of، General beliefs، self-efficacy and Perceived benefit could predict 58 percent of variations intention to adaptation (sig=0/01، F= 123/37، Constants=3/78). In other word these variables could predict 54 percent of variance of farmer’s intention to adaptation. we also find that General beliefs is a key predictor of intention to adaptation (Beta=0/43). Also، the results of showed that the variables of، intention، perceived vulnerability، perceived benefits and Vulnerable perceived، could predict 21 percent of variance in of adaptation behaviors (sig=0/01، F= 21/33، Constants= 4/08). These variable could predict 21 percent of farmers’ Behavior to responses to drought. Also، Intention is most important factor influencing of farmer’s adaptation behavior with drought. Discussion: Our research contributes to farmer’s adaptation behavior with drought by exploring and identifying the complicated reasoning behind why people do or don’t adaptation behaviors. Findings of study revealed that farmers’ Behavior to responses to drought was predicted mainly by Intent، perceived vulnerability severity، perceived benefits and Vulnerability perceived. Finally، These findings can provide recommendations on factors important to adaptation with drought among farmers in Iran.