كليدواژه :
ذرت , ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﻣﺪل , ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل , ﮔﻴﻼن
چكيده فارسي :
ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮاي ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺪل AquaCrop ﺑﺮاي ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﻮﻟﻮژﻳـﻚ ذرت ژﻧﻮﺗﻴـﭗ ﺳـﻴﻨﮕﻞ ﻛـﺮاس 704، در ﻻﻫﻴﺠﺎن، ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪت دو ﺳﺎل در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي زراﻋﻲ 1389 و 1390 اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ. ﻃﺮح آزﻣﺎﻳﺸﻲ ﺑﺼﻮرت ﻛـﺮت ﻫـﺎي ﺧـﺮد ﺷـﺪه ، در ﻗﺎﻟـﺐ ﺑﻠﻮك ﻫﺎي ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﺼﺎدﻓﻲ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻪ ﺗﻜﺮار اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ. ﺗﻴﻤﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ آﺑﻴﺎري ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺻﻠﻲ در ﺳﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ دور آﺑﻴﺎري 6، 12 و 18 روز در ﻛﺮت ﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﻲ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ. ﺗﻴﻤﺎرﻫﺎي ﻛﻮد ﻧﻴﺘﺮوژن ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﺎﻣـﻞ ﻓﺮﻋـﻲ در 4 ﺳـﻄﺢ 0، 20، 180 و 240 ﻛﻴﻠـﻮﮔﺮم در ﻫﻜﺘـﺎر ﺑﻮدﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎزي و اﻧﺪازه ﮔﻴﺮي ﺷﺪه ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﺒﻴﻴﻦ (R2) ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات (RMSEn) اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ، ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ واﺳـﻨﺠﻲ و ارزﻳـﺎﺑﻲ ﺑـﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴـﺐ، 14/74 و 12/01 درﺻﺪ و ﺑﺮاي ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ، 10/31 و 9/66 درﺻﺪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ، ﻣﻘﺪار ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﺒﻴـﻴﻦ در ﻣﺮاﺣـﻞ واﺳﻨﺠﻲ و ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﺮاي ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ذرت ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ، 0/86 و 0/80 و ﺑﺮاي ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴـﺐ، 0/92 و 0/86 ﺑﺪﺳـﺖ آﻣـﺪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻛﻪ ﻣﺪل AquaCrop در ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ ذرت، داراي دﻗﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و در ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺑﺮاي ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺑﻬﺮه وري آب و ﻣﺼﺮف ﻛﻮد ﻧﻴﺘﺮوژن در ﻛﺸﺖ ذرت در اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻴﻼن ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﻴﺮد.
چكيده لاتين :
This study was conducted for performance evaluation of AquaCrop model to predict grain yield and biomass of maize genotype SC704 in Lahijan, Iran for two years (2010-2011). The experiment was a randomize complete block based on a split plots design with three replications. Irrigation treatments were in the main plots as main factor in three irrigation levels 6, 12 and 18 days. Nitrogen fertilizer treatments were as sub plots in 4 levels of 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg/ha. Evaluation simulated and measured grain yield and biomass by adjusted coefficient of correlation (R2) and by normalized root mean square errors (RMSEn). Based on results, the average normalized root mean square error of calibration and validation in grain yield prediction for, were calculated 14.74 and 12.01 percent, respectively and for biomass, were calculated 10.31 and 9.66, respectively. Also, the regression coefficient (R2) of calibration and validation for maize grain yield, were calculated 0.86 and 0.80, respectively and for maize biomass, were calculated 0.92 and 0.86, respectively. Results indicated that, the AquaCrop model predicted maize grain yield and biomass prediction with an appropriate precision and can determine the optimization strategies for improve the water productivity and nitrogen fertilizer in maize used in Gilan province.
