پديد آورندگان :
اميني پارسا، وحيد دانشگاه تهران , ياوري، احمدرضا دانشگاه تهران - گروه برنامه ريزي، مديريت و آموزش محيط زيست , نژادي، اطهره دانشگاه تهران
كليدواژه :
مناطق حفاظت‌شده , متغيرهاي اقتصادي- اجتماعي , نيرومحركه‌ها , تخريب زمين
چكيده فارسي :
مناطق حفاظت‌شده علي‌رغم اقدامات حفاظتي در معرض تغييرات كاربري زمين قرار مي‌گيرند كه اين تغييرات ناشي از محركه‌هاي مختلفي به‌خصوص نيرومحركه‌هاي اقتصادي- اجتماعي هستند. هدف اين تحقيق بررسي ارتباط تغييرات كاربري زمين و متغيرهاي اقتصادي- اجتماعي آن در ذخيره‌گاه زيست‌كره ارسباران است. در اين راستا الگوي تغييرات كاربري زمين در طول 24 سال گذشته براي كل منطقه و هم‌چنين زون‌هاي مديريتي با استفاده از فنون سنجش‌ازدوري بررسي شد. ارتباط و همبستگي تغييرات كاربري زمين (متغير وابسته) با چهار متغير اقتصادي-اجتماعي؛ درصد تغيير جمعيت، درصد تغيير باسوادي، درصد تغيير اشتغال و درصد تغيير بعد خانوار (متغيرهاي مستقل) با استفاده از رگرسيون چند متغيره مورد تجزيه‌وتحليل و مدل‌سازي آماري قرار گرفت. نتايج نشان‌دهنده تخريب 5464/59 و 1351/07هكتاري سطوح جنگلي به ترتيب در كل منطقه و زون مركزي بين سال‌هاي 1989 تا 2013 هست. در اين بازه ميزان كل تخريب در منطقه برابر 12012/24 هكتار به دست آمد. بررسي همبستگي پارامترهاي مستقل با پارامتر وابسته نشان‌دهنده معني‌دار نبودن درصد تغيير سواد بوده و از مدل حذف شد. متغيرهاي باقي‌مانده در مدل لوجستيك و استفاده از روش اينتر به‌عنوان الگوريتم مدل‌سازي خطي وارد شدند و مدل همبستگي و پيش‌بيني تخريب از طريق متغيرهاي اقتصادي- اجتماعي حاصل شد.
چكيده لاتين :
Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained. Despite conservation action in the protected areas, land use changes (LUC) occur within these areas. These changes rise from several drivers especially socio-economic driving forces. This research aims to analyze relation between LUC and socio-economic variables in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. In this regard, previous and current pattern of LUC over past 24 years extracted using RS techniques both for the whole area and the each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR. The correlation between the LUC and four socio-economic variables (population, occupational, literacy and household size growth rate) was analyzed through statistical analysis. Results indicated 5464.59 and 1351.07 ha deforested respectively in the whole area and the core zone during 1989 to 2013. Total degradation was about 12012.24 ha. The literacy variable was not significant and so omitted form the regression model. The remnant variables analyzed by Logistic model by enter techniques as a linear regression and so the regression model for predicting the land degradation through socio-economic variables was obtained.]>
